An Economic Model of Long-run Supply and Demand Forecasts for Florida Oranges

Matthew J Salois, Carlos E Jauregui, Mark G Brown


This paper presents an economic model of long-run production and consumption forecasts for Florida oranges. This is accomplished through a quantitative model of the world orange juice market. By conducting model simulations, possible answers to key questions about the future of the Florida citrus industry are provided. Will prices be high enough to cover costs? What will be the size of the Florida citrus industry in the future? What will be the impact of the citrus industry on the Florida economy? Although answers to such questions can only be provided in a probabilistic sense, such answers are critical for future planning purposes.


econometric model, elasticity, forecast, orange juice

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Proc. Fla. State Hort. Soc.     ISSN 0886-7283