A New Methodological Contribution to Forecast Extreme Damaging Events: An Application to Extreme Marine Floodings in Venice, Italy

A. Palumbo

Abstract


A new general predictable model of the evolution of the systems driven by the autoorganized criticality has been set up. The model based on the time gap and on the energy released from last event on one hand, and on the return period on the other, is proposed in terms of an orbit of a simple non- linear function. The model tested on the extreme floodings recorded in Venice, provided estimates of the probability of the time occurrence and of the heights of the floods very closed to the observed ones.

 


Keywords


Marine flood models; extreme events; coastal floods; flood frequency analysis; power keyword models

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